Wherefore, honest men and wise men should be sought for diligently, and good men and wise men ye should observe to uphold; (D&C 98:10)

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Percent Job Losses In Post WWII Recessions

I found this chart from http://www.businessinsider.com/pct-job-losses-in-post-wwii-recessions-2013-1
And in Jul 2013 from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/percent-job-losses-great-recession-and.html

We still have a ways to go.

Here is an update from May 2015
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions.  Since exceeding the pre-recession peak in April 2014, employment is now 2.4% above the previous peak. 
Note: most previous recessions end on the graph when employment reached a new peak, although I continued the 2001 recession too.  The downturn at the end of the 2001 recession is the beginning of the 2007 recession.  I don't expect a downturn for employment any time soon (unlike in 2007 when I was forecasting a recession).
("Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"", Bill McBride, 25 Jun 2015)
If April 2014 is where we broke even we can subtract 75 months to conclude that Jan 2008 is when the recession started. It looks like the bottom of the graph is on month 25 which would be Feb 2010.

"According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009"

No comments: