2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

 While national politics and debating is tempting. I wonder if we focus more on local elections, we will actually affect more change. 

I do not know Kari Lake. Her list of things she says she is for aligns quite well with my own priorities. 

https://www.karilake.com/issues

There are a few others that have declared that they are running. I am ready to publicly support anyone that I trust will 

1) be able to win

2) will actually effect at least part of what I find important

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Arizona_gubernatorial_election#Declared

Voting and Healing

Update 2020-10-03 

The following pretty much mirrors my thoughts about Trump from a friend's FB Post.

I'm just going to come out and say it:  I don't like Trump as a person.  I have a visceral negative reaction to him.  He reminds me of the bullies I knew in elementary school and middle school when I was harassed relentlessly because I was a nerd and my mom was a teacher at the school.  I have seen video of Trump speaking at rallies, and he appears more charming and funny in that setting, but overall, no, I don't like Trump.  But I am still voting for him.  Logic tells me that I don't like most politicians, so I can't trust my visceral dislike of Trump.  At the end of the day, I like about half of Trump's policies, and I cannot find any policies that Biden supports that I like.   Trump is generally more free market oriented and more against foreign wars than Biden is. And of course he is more likely to appoint conservative judges to the federal courts.  The greatest threat to the United States right now -- by far -- is the radical left that Biden and the Democrats are encouraging to riot and loot, and Trump is opposed to the greatest threat to America and may actually do something about that threat.  So, yes, I will vote for Trump even though I don't like him.

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2020-08-26

I did not vote for Trump in 2016. It was the first time in my life I had not voted for the Republican nominee in the general Presidential election. For months I have concluded that having Trump would be better than Biden. Trump has been better than I expected for extracting or at least not worsening the wars around the world, for nominating judges that I am sure are better than what Hillary would have. 

I also believe that "Trump's egoism, narcissism, nativism, and all around contemptuousness is eroding the moral fabric of the conservative right" as said by Jeffrey Thayne. There is a part of me that thinks that Trump losing might be better in the long run for America. There is an equal part of me that disagrees with this. 

It comes down to whether I vote for someone I agree with, or do I compromise; bending farther than I have ever done to vote for someone that seems to currently have their personal ambitions aligned at least partly with myself. 

I also want to emphasize that whoever is elected is far less important than personal change in my own life, in my influence with my family, friends and community including voting for the school board, city council, and state government. And it is in that order. 

I hope that we all can be willing to have conversations with those we disagree in good faith. I hope for hope and healing and a firm resolution to do the right thing. 

The extended quote from Jeffrey Thayne:

"We are entering into an unusually contentious election year. 

Both major candidates have their sore spots. I believe that abortion is the silent, slow-burn holocaust of our generation, and so I cannot in good conscience support Biden and Kamala (who actively pursued and prosecuted pro-life activists with an ideological vengeance). I believe that Trump's egoism, narcissism, nativism, and all around contemptuousness is eroding the moral fabric of the conservative right, so I cannot in good conscience support him either.

In short, for many people, there are no good options. And that means, this election year, we must be especially generous with those who stack their political priorities a bit differently than we do. We must extend grace towards those who wade through the many shades of gray and come out the other side with different conclusions than we do.

Articulate your beliefs and principles, but this year, above all others, we need Peacemakers. This doesn't mean relinquishing our deeply held beliefs and convictions, or relaxing our values. But it does mean not letting the passion of our convictions overcome our humanity, nor letting our tribal grievances set our hearts at war with friends, neighbors, and family.

I worry about the contention that is souring the hearts of many, and it's only going to get worse. I've seen multiple friends, in various threads on social media, argue that God will hold us accountable for voting for the wrong candidate (Trump in some threads, Biden in others). That much may be true. But He will also hold us accountable for how we treat our friends and neighbors. And above all, our position will be most perilous if we stand before Him with a heart full of pride, believing ourselves morally superior to others because of our tribal banner-waving and virtue signalling.

Let us be both full of conviction and yet also humble and filled with the pure love of Christ. Let us not judge others for sinning differently than we do -- and for navigating a particularly confusing political landscape a little differently than we would."

Copied from my FB post. 

Oldest Presidents

Joe Biden would be the oldest President by 8 years if he were to be elected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age

Trump: the good, the bad and the ugly

Update 2020-04-12

Posted as a comment on several of my friend's posts

There is way more to life than who will be the next President. I want the President to have so little power that it matters _way_ less who it is.

-------------
I think I will vote for Trump. While I do not like the way he talks, I do like the results of his policies for the most part.

https://youtu.be/mkosbgYIOWM


A good friend of mine posted an article by David French called "Will Somebody Please Hate My Enemies for Me?" I agree with much of the article, This was my reply to her

"I fully recognize that refusing to hire a hater and refusing to hire a liar carries costs. If we see politics through worldly eyes, it makes no sense at all. Why would you adopt moral standards that put you at a disadvantage in an existential political struggle? If we don’t stand by Trump we will lose, and losing is unacceptable." 

Losing is unacceptable. There is no reasonable way to nominate someone other than Trump for the Republicans. 

He has done some good, some bad and definitely some ugly.  

At this point, the reduction in regulations that allows business to prosper is better than the bad and the ugly I have seen from Trump. 

It is not a pleasant decision. I think it is the best of the options I have.  

I did not vote for Trump in 2106 in the primary nor in the general election. I chose an unknown 3rd party candidate.  

The difference this time is the track record of judges chosen and other positive results that I have seen.  This weighs out to more good than bad at this point. 

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One Of The Best Events In A Generation

Electing Bernie Sanders as the Democrat nominee would be one of the best events in a generation.

He will be defeated and socialism is given a trouncing.

Perhaps even better is if he wins the Presidency. He then will implement some fraction of what he wants and everyone will see the failure of the results.

Understanding Trump's Behavior

This is a good list of things to keep in mind when trying to understand Trump.
"Understanding Trump’s behavior", Geoff B 15 Jul 2018

I agree with the ending
" I disagree with Trump on many things — the increase in government spending is absolutely scandalous, and I don’t agree with his trade or immigration policies. But the economy is doing quite well overall, people are working, and government regulations are being taken from the books. Trump is appointing excellent federal judges, and he got tax reform passed."

This paragraph stood out to me when a friend mentioned how unacceptable his behavior is.

Isn’t Trump a bad, immoral man? Yes and no. As I said above, Trump is a New York real estate developer. Of course he has done and said very, very bad things during his life. But, strangely, he is a teetotaler, and his kids all love him. Even his ex-wives appear to like him. I happen to think almost all politicians, and certainly all U.S. presidents, are both good and bad. If you don’t like the way Trump talks, you should read a biography of LBJ and check out how he talked all of his life. If you don’t like Trump’s many affairs, you should learn a bit more about the private lives of FDR, Ike and JFK. I find the “Trump is a bad man” claims to be insufferable, to be quite frank. If you are expecting a politician to be moral all of the time, you will always, and I mean always, be disappointed — if you are honest with yourself. By all accounts, Obama was a good family man, but he had a personal kill list and he ordered the death of a U.S. citizen by drone. I could go on and on about the literally hundreds of horrible things Obama did as president, but if you are a partisan Obama supporter and Trump hater it would be a waste of time, and, again, life is too short. If you are interested in my opinion on the subject, I would encourage you to read this post titled “The inevitable hypocrisy of the political morality police.”
https://www.millennialstar.org/the-inevitable-hypocrisy-of-the-political-morality-police/

Is Trump more blatant about his rudeness, his immorality? Yes. Is he worse than a list of previous Presidents? Maybe.

His bull in a china shop approach may be why he got elected and why he has been so politically effective. People are attracted to that.  It evidently has been effective.

It makes sense to me to analyze what the fruits are of the political things he has done. I disagree with his tariffs and his reckless spending though it may be better than the spending of any Democrat that would have been elected. I agree with his appointments to the courts of Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.

I am concerned with his "strong man" approach to politics. I think it is a dangerous trend. The doctrine of infallibility is a regress to ideas before the enlightenment., "notions like the divine right of kings, the Roman imperial cults, or the Chinese mandate of heaven" ("Trump’s Defenders Have Adopted a Doctrine of Infallibility", Jonah Goldberg, October 4, 2019 6:30 AM)

It is better to seek out what principles we are to defend and promote. Focus on them and not on concentrating power in any one human or human system. We must weigh the options we are presented with. We must do our best to encourage better options while balancing those efforts with our personal priorities.

Who should replace Trent Franks?

2018-02-10

Here are the list of candidates that say they would vote against the spending bill that passed.
Steve Montenegro, Mark Yates, Clair VAN Steenwyk (I am presuming) (See My FB Post)




2018-02-05
Who are you voting for to replace Trent Franks?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_8th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018

My initial gut feeling is for Steve Montenegro. I have voted for him for the state legislature.

Voting Record https://votesmart.org/candidate/106507/steve-montenegro

On Immigration:
"Montenegro said if elected to Congress, he will fight for the Constitution and personal liberties and will work with like-minded Republicans to end illegal immigration.

Asked by a Facebook viewer if he can “handle the liberal media and the fake news," Montenegro said he he has been the subject of false reporting.

“I’m public enemy No. 1 with Spanish-language media because I don’t fit the characteristic they want me to fit,” he said. Montenegro supported controversial religious-freedom legislation in 2014, as well as anti-illegal immigration measures seen as an affront to the immigrant community.

“I will continue to stand for legal immigration, and I will continue to stand against illegal immigration,” said Montenegro, adding his family came to the U.S. legally."
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/12/11/state-senator-steve-montenegro-joins-race-replace-congress-trent-franks/940667001/



I disagree with Steve Montenegro's vote for HB 2556 of 2016
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation
https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/52leg/2r/bills/hb2456p.pdf

If the bill becomes in force, the electoral college system would effectively become a popular vote. So while it is technically not against the electoral college. It would turn the electoral college system into a popular vote system.

I do not have strong feeling about the electoral college. It was initially created to keep the large states from overpowering the small ones.

Arizona's 8th congressional district

The Wikipedia article for Arizona's 8th congressional district
Here is a map of District 8

Feb 2018
"5 Arizona Republicans running for Congress debate at azcentral.com"
My FB post trying to figure out who I should vote for.
My gut pointed me to Steve Montenegro

Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

More interesting graphs at "Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election" 16 Aug 2017, Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University.

I found this image reading this.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/2/16588964/america-epistemic-crisis

Mapping the Election

This is one that is a Oct 11 forecast. It shows the balance of electoral votes. ("There’s More Than One Way to Map an Election", Greg Miller, 11 Oct 2016

This one shows who won the actual geographic counties. It is accurate and it can be misleading since there is generally a lower population density in the red counties.

The Best Realistic Outcome of the Election for President

Here is a conversation with my friend about my best, realistic hopes for the outcome of the election.

Arizona Corporation Commission

Election 2016

Primary Election 2016

Here is the Republican debate video from Aug 8.

"5 Republicans vie for 3 seats on utility regulation panel", Highlands Today

From Ballotpedia, "Incumbents Robert Burns (R) and Andy Tobin (R) are running for re-election in 2016. Commissioner Bob Stump (R) is ineligible for re-election due to term limits."

In addition Boyd Dunn, Rick Gray and Al Melvin are running.

Boyd Dunn
Attorney, city councilman, vice mayor of Chandler, former mayor of Chandler, Judge of Maricopa Superior court.
Ballotpedia page

Al Melvin
Arizona State Senate, District 26 in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
Ran for governor in 2014, "dropped out of the race in June due to campaign financing issues"
Ballotpedia page

Rick Gray
Representative, Arizona State House of Representatives, 2010, 2012, 2014
Retired plumbing contractor.
Lives in Sun City
Ballotpedia page

Bob Burns
Corporation Commission 2012
Senator, Arizona State Senate, 2002-2010
Representative, Arizona State House of Representatives, 1989-2000
Ballotpedia page
VoteSmart page

Andy Tobin
Appointed by Doug Ducey to the Corporation Commission. Started serving after Susan Bitter Smith resigned in Jan 2016.
Ran against Ann Kirkpatrick for the U.S. House, Arizona District 1 in 2014. He lost.
Representative, Arizona State House of Representatives 2008, 2010, 2012
Ballotpedia page


From "Robb: Arizona Corporation Commission is now a circus, thanks to these clowns", Robert Robb AzCentral.

Two outside groups, Save Our Future Now and the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, spent over $3 million in 2014 to help elect Commissioners Doug Little and Tom Forese. Arizona Public Service is widely believed to be the source of much of that spending. And APS has pointedly not denied it. 

The commission and individual commissioners have the right to inspect the records of regulated utilities. Burns wants to use that authority to try to determine whether APS or its parent, Pinnacle West, did contribute to those efforts and how much.

From "5 Republicans vie for 3 seats on utility regulation panel", Tampa Bay Times, 20 Aug 2016

The normally quiet race for Arizona Corporation Commission is anything but this year as two Republican incumbents and three GOP hopefuls battle over political spending that has embroiled the utility regulation panel in controversy.

This site (http://www.az-acc.com/) is promoting Tobin, Melvin and Gray as "your conservative team"




I am for the freedom of APS to

Who I am voting for in the Surprise City Council Election

UPDATE Aug 26, 2013
I changed my vote.  I voted for Lou Provenzano. At the very least, I want to make sure that there is another opportunity to hear them both and vote again in the fall.

I like that Lou hasn't taken public union funds for his campaign. A bond measure might be better fiscally than a general property tax increase.  A bond is meant for a particular purpose and then the tax goes away.

I hope the best candidate wins.

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There are three people running for the election of Surprise city council in district 6.  I am voting for Todd Tande because he is the most qualified and is a fiscal conservative.

Here is an exchange he and I had on Facebook Thursday.

Richard Alger Are you committed to a level revenue stream? Would you vote to reduce the city property tax rate as home values rise again? 

Todd Tande Because I know that the property tax assessed values are going up, and that the assessed values lag two years, I am confident I can make an argument to the other councilors that the levy rate could go down (even keeping the revenues level) and that would be my intention. I will strive to have the City achieve savings and efficiencies. I will be cautious until I see the risk management issues (some very large potential issues) the city is dealing with and I will ask for a better long term forecast of finances (something the City I think may just beginning to get a handle on) before I commit to something like level revenue (especially as the City grows and service demands increase). Not allowing to cover for the City growth demands in service could cause a severe self imposed crisis. I have made bold decisions to fix things fast, but I want to be able to ask the hard questions before arbitrarily setting a policy without all the facts. If you look on my issues section of the website, I have listed my goal of having the City Measure performance and hold regular structured operational reviews (I am hopeful that I can get enough votes to have the city manager do that).... getting enough votes to have an actual impact is a very important role for a councilor.... I have experience from a STRONG STAFF position of getting unanimous votes of 29-0 from a very divided partisan council on big and complex controversial initiatives that successfully were implemented. 

Todd Tande

http://www.surprised6.com/
FB Campaign Page
Endorsement Cover Letter
Priorities Flyer
Most Qualified Leader Flyer

Randy Miller 

FB Profile

Campaign Flyer

Lou Provanzano

http://surprisecouncil.com/

FB Campaign Page

Why John McCain?

In that last days of the Presidential campaign, I just found this at McCain's site. I agree with every point.

We cannot tax ourselves out of a recession. The Tax Man Cometh
Do we want to trust our security to someone whose mettle has not yet been tested? Mark Biden's Words

Charlie Gibson Interviews Sarah Palin

Here is part one of Charlie Gibson's interview with Sarah Palin.

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Here is Hugh Hewitt's commentary on it.  Some quotes:

Charles Gibson threw fastballs --fair, but hard fastballs-- and Sarah Palin connected on every one save the Bush Doctrine and even there she recovered nicely, demonstrating a poise that will serve her very well in the next 54 days.

My mail shows a lot of hostility to Gibson, but I think that is misplaced.  We want tough interviews of all four candidates.  We just want them of both tickets, with the same abruptness when Obama filibusters and stammers.

Watching the Polls

I have a friend who is excited at the results of the recent Presidential election polls.  Each party traditionally has had a bump in the poll after their convention.  I like the Real Clear Politics poll average.  They average out the results of several polls.  Their is margin of error in any poll.  They try to stay consistent with their methodology.  Sometimes looking at the trend of the poll is more important than the actual numbers.

It is promising to see these polls.  Another week or two will show us if this really has been a turning point in the Presidential campaign.

The Words They Used

The NY Times has an interesting graphic that shows the frequency of certain words the speakers of the two parties used in the Republican and Democrat conventions.

Sarah "Baracuda" Quotes

Collected by Hugh Hewitt, here are some awesome Palin lines from her speech at the convention:

"Some candidates use change to promote their careers. John McCain has used his career to promote change. "

"The presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery.."

"There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you."

"The special confidence of those who have seen evil and have seen how evil is overcome."

Campaining for John McCain

For several months I have felt blase about politics. I felt different after listening to John McCain late Saturday night. He will make a fine President. I fully support him and have decided to do what I can to help him get elected. Today I am donating to http://www.johnmccain.com, http://yesformarriage.com/ and http://protectmarriage.com/.

I am also going to research some candidates for local and state office as well as propositions. I will post the result of my research here on this site. I would love your input so I make the best choices this election season.

We must be informed on what we vote for. Don't forget to register to vote.

Update 2008-08-22

On Thu, Aug 21, 2008 at 10:57 AM, [a friend of mine] wrote:
I am not really sure if he will make a fine president. Some of his stands are really far left for a conservative Republican. But the more I learn about Barack Hussein Obama, GO MCCAIN!!!!!

Maybe I meant that he will be "fine" or good enough as president. I do believe McCain will do everything in his power to keep our country secure.

I also like what I believe is his sentiment behind campaign finance reform. I do NOT like McCain-Feingold. We should not hog tie ourselves when it comes to campaign finance. I do support increasing transparency in government. We should know as much as is possible exactly who supports what campaign.

McCain Is My Third Choice

John McCain is my third choice for President behind Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. I agree with Hugh Hewitt's short list for why.

There's a reason why Senator McCain never brings [the gang of 14] up when asked to discuss his qualifications for the presidency. It is on the list with the votes against the Bush tax cuts, the McCain-Kennedy immigration "reform," McCain-Feingold, ANWR and many other things.

The Gang of 14 is short hand for why John McCain should not be the nominee of the GOP.

"The Gang of 14 was a term coined to describe the bipartisan group of moderate Senators in the 109th United States Congress who successfully negotiated a compromise in the spring of 2005 to avoid the deployment of the so-called [constitutional] option" Wikipedia. The constitutional option was a Republican plan to change the rules of the Senate so as to not allow filibustering of judicial nominees.

"Senator McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts. Now he's for them." Mitt Romney on Thursday, April 26th, 2007 in Stratham, N.H. Found at PolitiFact.com. See also, MediaMatters.org view on this PolitiFact article.


I will support whoever is the Republican nominee. I am convinced that Mitt Romney is the best choice.